The power sector is being transformed by dramatic technological change. The demands for further innovation, emanating from the need for greater productivity internally and external public objectives, is increasing. How should the industry, policy makers, and regulators respond to this demand? How do we identify the most promising technologies? What are the costs and cost trends going forward and how do they compare with anticipated benefits?...
A confluence of events presents major implications for the development of electricity system policy as part of the larger energy transition. The 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties in Glasgow, Federal legislation for the economy and climate policy, increasing focus on upgrading the transmission grid to achieve national goals, and responses to extreme events such as in Texas (ERCOT) could set dramatically new paths for the evolution of the electricity system. There is general agreement that much is broken and needs to be fixed, but less of a common view of...
Tail events: Prediction, Planning, and Performance
Extreme weather and related fires and floods are much in the news. The electricity crisis in ERCOT in February 2021 illustrated the challenge of addressing high consequence but low probability events. The extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific Coast of US and Canada in June provided a stark example of a seemingly very low probability event that was not predicted and shocked us because of the magnitude of the temperature spike. How much of this is driven by climate change dynamics? If so, what reliability/resiliency policy implications should that have? And how much remains both surprising and unexplained? Everyone wants to protect against severe consequences. A report on the ERCOT crisis by former state regulators in Texas embraced the title “Never Again”. But we cannot protect ourselves from everything. When we get outside the envelope, emergency procedures are required. How have these cases changed the analysis, prediction, planning and procedures for low probability high consequence events? What promises should we make? What promises can we keep?
Cost of energy “crises” are nothing new. They happen periodically when prices shoot up, and the voters discover that they are on the sharp end. In the 1970s, there was an external hostile party to blame: the Arab Sheiks.