Tail events: Prediction, Planning, and Performance

Tail events: Prediction, Planning, and Performance

Extreme weather and related fires and floods are much in the news.  The electricity crisis in ERCOT in February 2021 illustrated the challenge of addressing high consequence but low probability events.  The extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific Coast of US and Canada in June provided a stark example of a seemingly very low probability event that was not predicted and shocked us because of the magnitude of the temperature spike.  How much of this is driven by climate change dynamics? If so, what reliability/resiliency policy implications should that have? And how much remains both surprising and unexplained?  Everyone wants to protect against severe consequences.  A report on the ERCOT crisis by former state regulators in Texas embraced the title “Never Again”.  But we cannot protect ourselves from everything.  When we get outside the envelope, emergency procedures are required.  How have these cases changed the analysis, prediction, planning and procedures for low probability high consequence events?  What promises should we make? What promises can we keep?

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